Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 June 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun, 27 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagneticfield has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 384 km/s at 24/2041Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/1940Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/2006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1093 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun, 27 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jun 081
Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 24 Jun 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10