Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 June 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 363 km/s at 22/2104Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (24 Jun, 26 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day two (25 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 067
Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 23 Jun 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 007/008-008/012-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/15
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/35/25
Major-severe storm 25/30/25