Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 June 2018

By SpaceRef Editor
June 24, 2018
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun, 27 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 513 km/s at 23/2343Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2137Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 23/2138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1132 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Jun), quiet to active levels on day two (26 Jun) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (27 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jun 075
Predicted   25 Jun-27 Jun 075/072/072
90 Day Mean        24 Jun 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun  015/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun  008/008-007/010-016/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/40
Minor Storm           05/10/35
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/40/70

SpaceRef staff editor.