Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 June 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun, 27 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 24/1316Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/2107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/2136Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 446 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun, 27 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jun 074
Predicted   25 Jun-27 Jun 073/072/072
90 Day Mean        24 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/10
Major-severe storm    20/10/05