Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 24/1529Z from Region 2371 (N11W40). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun, 27 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 778 km/s at 24/1415Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 24/1320Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/2329Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 30 pfu at 24/0025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 26376 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active levels on day one (25 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (26 Jun, 27 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (25 Jun), are likely to cross threshold on day two (26 Jun) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (27 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 80/60/40
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jun 110
Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 24 Jun 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 047/078
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 017/025-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
