Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
24/0029Z from Region 2092 (S19W0*). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Jun,
26 Jun, 27 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
392 km/s at 24/1950Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/0146Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 24/0131Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 133 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Jun, 26 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (27 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jun 094
Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 095/095/100
90 Day Mean 24 Jun 134

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 005/005-006/005-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/10