Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
24/1132Z from Region 1778 (S16E49). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for isolated M-class flares on day one (25 Jun) and expected to
be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (26 Jun) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(27 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
618 km/s at 24/1112Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2107Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/2115Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14 pfu at
24/0520Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10700 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Jun, 26 Jun)
and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Jun). Protons have a chance
of crossing threshold on day one (25 Jun), have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day two and three (26-27 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
Class M 30/20/10
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 30/20/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jun 121
Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 24 Jun 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 016/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 009/010-006/008-009/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/30
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/15/40