Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 July 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul, 27 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 382 km/s at 24/1701Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 24/0559Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/0550Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 221 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (27 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jul 070
Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 24 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 011/012-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/10
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 50/20/10