Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 July 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul, 27 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 24/0135Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/2047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/1750Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (25 Jul, 27 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jul 068
Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 24 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 005/005-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15