Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 July 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul, 27 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 648 km/s at 24/1554Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 24/0602Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 24/0636Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 307 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jul 067
Predicted   25 Jul-27 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        24 Jul 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul  014/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul  014/015-009/010-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    45/30/30