Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 July 2017

By SpaceRef Editor
July 24, 2017
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul, 27 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 707 km/s at 24/0416Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 24/0249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/0247Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14764 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jul 070
Predicted   25 Jul-27 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        24 Jul 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul  016/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.