- Status Report
- Jan 28, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 July 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul, 27 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 707 km/s at 24/0416Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 24/0249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/0247Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14764 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jul 070
Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 24 Jul 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 016/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/10/10