Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 July 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
24/1819Z from Region 1800 (S09W18). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul, 27 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 373 km/s at
24/0050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1905 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (25 Jul), quiet to active levels on day
two (26 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (27 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jul 108
Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 24 Jul 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 005/005-009/012-013/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/40
Minor Storm 01/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 10/35/55