Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 24/0237Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed 24/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10023 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (25 Jan, 27 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day two (26 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jan 095
Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 24 Jan 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 007/008-010/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/25
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/40/30