Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 January 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 666 km/s at 24/1339Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 24/0151Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/2110Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (25 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (27 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jan 072
Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        24 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan  017/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  013/018-009/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/30/20