Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 January 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 413 km/s at 23/2124Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/1826Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1001 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Jan, 26 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jan 082
Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan 082/080/080
90 Day Mean        24 Jan 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  005/005-006/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/25