Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 24/0455Z from Region 2488 (N04W01). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 519 km/s at 24/1602Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 24/1821Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 24/1725Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12881 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jan 104
Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 105/108/108
90 Day Mean 24 Jan 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 012/015-011/012-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/25
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 35/30/25
Major-severe storm 45/40/25