Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 24/0740Z from Region 2268 (S10E48). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 451 km/s at 23/2318Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/1424Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (25 Jan), unsettled to active levels on day two (26 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jan 125
Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 125/135/145
90 Day Mean 24 Jan 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 015/018-015/018-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
