Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 February 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 453 km/s at 24/0648Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/2139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1568 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (25 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 070
Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 24 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 006/005-006/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/25/25