Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 February 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 354 km/s at 23/2102Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Feb, 26 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (27 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Feb 071
Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        24 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  006/005-006/005-012/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/40
Minor Storm           01/01/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/15/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/50