Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 February 2018

By SpaceRef Editor
February 24, 2018
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 23/2316Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23/2256Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/2253Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2614 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Feb), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (26 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Feb 068
Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        24 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  011/014-018/024-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/20
Minor Storm           15/25/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    50/65/20

SpaceRef staff editor.