- Press Release
- August 14, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 February 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 23/2316Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23/2256Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/2253Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2614 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Feb), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (26 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 068
Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 24 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 011/014-018/024-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/25/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 50/65/20