- Status Report
- Jan 31, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 February 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 24/0012Z from Region 2638 (N18E08). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 671 km/s at 24/0516Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 23/2305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 23/2323Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 566 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (27 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 082
Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 083/083/085
90 Day Mean 24 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 011/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/20/10