Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 February 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 24/0012Z from Region 2638 (N18E08). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 671 km/s at 24/0516Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 23/2305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 23/2323Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 566 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (27 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Feb 082
Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb 083/083/085
90 Day Mean        24 Feb 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  011/012-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/10