Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 February 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 24/1229Z from Region 2506 (S07E48). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 374 km/s at 24/0734Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/0857Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/2142Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1937 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 088
Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 085/085/080
90 Day Mean 24 Feb 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 007/008-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/20/20