Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 24/1057Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 552 km/s at 24/0155Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 24/0032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 24/0114Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 114
Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 120/125/130
90 Day Mean 24 Feb 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 014/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 023/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 010/012-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb