Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 February 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
February 24, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 February 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 24/1057Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 552 km/s at 24/0155Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 24/0032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 24/0114Z.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb).

 

III.  Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           24 Feb 114

Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb 120/125/130

90 Day Mean        24 Feb 146

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  014/015

Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb  023/028

Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  010/012-010/010-007/008

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/15/15

Minor Storm           05/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/25/25

Major-severe storm    35/20/20

 

SpaceRef staff editor.