Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 23/2249Z from Region 2242 (S16W85). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (25 Dec) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (26 Dec, 27 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 615 km/s at 24/0328Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 23/2147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 23/2200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Dec), quiet levels on day two (26 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Class M 50/30/25
Class X 10/05/05
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 151
Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 145/140/145
90 Day Mean 24 Dec 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 009/015-006/008-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
