Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 August 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Aug, 26 Aug, 27 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 24/0545Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 482 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (25 Aug) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Aug 066
Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 24 Aug 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 005/005-007/010-014/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/35/35
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 10/35/20
Major-severe storm 05/35/30