Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
24/1217Z from Region 2151 (S07E58). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Aug, 26 Aug, 27 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 297 km/s at
24/0338Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/0142Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/0513Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 293 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (25 Aug) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Aug 141
Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 24 Aug 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 006/005-011/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/35/30
Minor Storm 01/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/15/20