Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 April 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 24/0412Z from Region 2993 (N19W32). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Apr, 26 Apr, 27 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 541 km/s at 24/0121Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/2038Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/2123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 358 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Apr 159
Predicted 25 Apr-27 Apr 160/160/160
90 Day Mean 24 Apr 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr 012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 009/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/20