Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 April 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Apr, 26 Apr, 27 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 24/0307Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23/2122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/2124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 174 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (27 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Apr 069
Predicted 25 Apr-27 Apr 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 24 Apr 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 012/015-009/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 30/20/15