Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 April 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Apr, 26 Apr, 27 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 602 km/s at 24/0945Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 23/2208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/2245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 178 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Apr, 26 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (27 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Apr 082
Predicted 25 Apr-27 Apr 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 24 Apr 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 008/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/25/20