Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 September 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep, 26 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 435 km/s at 23/2059Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/1054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 23/1054Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 166 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Sep), unsettled to active levels on day two (25 Sep) and unsettled levels on day three (26 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Sep 073
Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 23 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 010/012-012/015-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/40/40