Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 September 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep, 26 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 359 km/s at 23/0634Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23/0023Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/2040Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Sep, 25 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Sep 066
Predicted   24 Sep-26 Sep 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        23 Sep 067

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep  010/012-010/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    35/35/25