Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 September 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
23/1536Z from Region 2172 (S11E36). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep,
26 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
482 km/s at 23/1309Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23/1357Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/1030Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 151 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Sep, 25 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (26 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Sep 138
Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 140/145/150
90 Day Mean 23 Sep 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 008/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/20