Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct, 26 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 23/1906Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 23/1621Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 23/1930Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 621 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and three (24 Oct, 26 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day two (25 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 072
Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 23 Oct 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 009/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 015/020-012/015-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/40
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 65/50/65