Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 October 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct, 26 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 373 km/s at 23/0606Z. Total IMF reached 3 nT at 23/0214Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 23/1725Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Oct), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (25 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (26 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 065
Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 23 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 014/022-021/030-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/45/30
Minor Storm 25/30/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/15
Minor Storm 25/20/30
Major-severe storm 65/70/40