Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 October 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct, 26 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 351 km/s at 23/0847Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23/1031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/1016Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Oct, 25 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (26 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Oct 072
Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct 072/072/070
90 Day Mean        23 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  010/012-009/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/20/20