Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 October 2017

By SpaceRef Editor
October 23, 2017
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (24 Oct, 25 Oct) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (26 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 413 km/s at 23/0425Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23/0046Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 23/0649Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 518 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Oct), active to major storm levels on day two (25 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (26 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M    05/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Oct 078
Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct 078/078/077
90 Day Mean        23 Oct 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  015/022-028/045-025/035

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/35
Minor Storm           25/40/25
Major-severe storm    05/20/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor Storm           20/15/25
Major-severe storm    65/75/55

SpaceRef staff editor.