Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 October 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct, 26 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 23/1014Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/0328Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/1956Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2698 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (24 Oct) and active to major storm levels on days two and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 077
Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 076/074/073
90 Day Mean 23 Oct 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct NA/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 020/032-032/044-025/040

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/45/45
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/45/35