Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 23, 2015
Filed under , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct, 26 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 513 km/s at 23/0412Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/2203Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/0409Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 376 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Oct), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (25 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 115
Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 23 Oct 103

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 013/020-019/024-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/20
Minor Storm 15/20/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 45/50/25

SpaceRef staff editor.