Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 October 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
23/0950Z from Region 2192 (S14W06). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25
Oct, 26 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
503 km/s at 22/2349Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/1717Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6898 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (24 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one through three (24-26 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M 85/85/85
Class X 45/45/45
Proton 35/40/45
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 227
Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 230/230/230
90 Day Mean 23 Oct 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 012/015-009/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 45/30/25
