Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Nov, 25 Nov, 26 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 566 km/s at 23/1344Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23/0707Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/0833Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1093 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Nov, 25 Nov, 26 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Nov 080
Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 080/082/082
90 Day Mean 23 Nov 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10