Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 November 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Nov, 25 Nov, 26 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 396 km/s at 23/0032Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23/0948Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 23/0854Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (24 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Nov 069
Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        23 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  006/005-006/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/25/25