Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Nov, 25 Nov, 26 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 23/0040Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/2122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 22/2308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 330 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (24 Nov) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Nov 078
Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 079/079/080
90 Day Mean 23 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 016/022-016/020-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/25
Minor Storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20