Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 November 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 23/0228Z from Region 2454 (N14W67). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (24 Nov, 25 Nov) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (26 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 359 km/s at 23/0329Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 181 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (24 Nov) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M 30/30/20
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Nov 120
Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 120/115/110
90 Day Mean 23 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 005/005-012/015-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/25
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 15/40/30