Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 23/1053Z from Region 2217 (S19E68). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Nov, 25 Nov, 26 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 479 km/s at 23/1310Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/0220Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/0351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 671 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (24 Nov, 25 Nov, 26 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 20/20/20
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Nov 173
Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 170/150/140
90 Day Mean 23 Nov 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 007/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
