Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 23/1105Z from Region 3017 (N13W28). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 May, 25 May, 26 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 22/2318Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23/0645Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/0520Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1051 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (24 May, 25 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (24 May, 25 May, 26 May).

III. Event probabilities 24 May-26 May
Class M 40/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 May 158
Predicted 24 May-26 May 158/156/154
90 Day Mean 23 May 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 005/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May-26 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 15/15/25