Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 May 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 May, 25 May, 26 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 377 km/s at 23/2004Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/1546Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/1851Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 166 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (24 May, 26 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (25 May).

III.  Event probabilities 24 May-26 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 May 067
Predicted   24 May-26 May 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        23 May 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May  006/005-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May-26 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/10
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    15/25/15