Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 23/1739Z from Region 2353 (N07W18). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 May, 25 May, 26 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 377 km/s at 23/0608Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23/0434Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/0456Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 295 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 May, 25 May, 26 May).
III. Event probabilities 24 May-26 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 May 098
Predicted 24 May-26 May 098/105/105
90 Day Mean 23 May 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May-26 May
