Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 23/1357Z from Region 2974 (S18E54). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Mar, 25 Mar, 26 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 23/0910Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/2205Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 23/0535Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 166 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (25 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (26 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 106
Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 105/105/110
90 Day Mean 23 Mar 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 013/015-007/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/15
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 50/30/20