Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 March 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (24 Mar) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day two (25 Mar) and expected to be very low on day three (26 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 321 km/s at 22/2302Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 813 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (24 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (25 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (26 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M    10/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Mar 079
Predicted   24 Mar-26 Mar 080/077/074
90 Day Mean        23 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  020/025-010/012-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/10
Minor Storm           30/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/20/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    70/20/20