Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 March 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Mar, 25 Mar, 26 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1151 km/s at 22/2117Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 23/1948Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 22/2157Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 19135 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Mar 072
Predicted   24 Mar-26 Mar 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        23 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  019/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  013/018-009/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/25/20